Peer-reviewed publications
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Goidel, Spencer, Paul M. Kellstedt, and Matthew J. Lebo. ``Macropartisanship with Independents.'' Public Opinion Quarterly 86.1 (2022): 149-161. Download here.
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We conceive of Macropartisanship as a compositional variable and study how its components are affected by changes in economic sentiment and presidential approval.
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Goidel, Kirby, Nicholas T. Davis, and Spencer Goidel. ``Changes in perceptions of media bias.'' Research & Politics 8.1 (2021): 229-238. Download here.
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In this paper, we utilize a module from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study to explore how individual perceptions of media bias changed over the course of the 2016 presidential campaign.
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Goidel, Kirby, Keith Gaddie, and Spencer Goidel. ``Rigged-election rhetoric: Coverage and consequences.'' PS: Political Science & Politics 52.2 (2019): 229-238.
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Using content analysis and original survey data, we investigated the news coverage and consequences of Donald Trump’s “rigged-election” claims during the 2016 presidential election.
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Book chapters
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Goidel, Spencer, and Paul M. Kellstedt. ``Economic Opinion.'' Handbook on Politics and Public Opinion, edited by Thomas J. Rudolph. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2022.
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In this chapter we show, first, that the influence of partisanship on economic opinion is variable from election to election. Second, the link between objective economic conditions and economic opinion is weakening.
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Works in progress
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Goidel, Spencer. ``More Candidates and Fewer Voters: How an Abundance of Choice Demobilizes the Electorate.''
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I use an aggregate-level analysis leveraging Louisiana’s institutional changes and an individual-level analysis to investigate the effect of varying quantities of choice on voter abstention at the ballot box in U.S. House elections.
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Goidel, Spencer, Thiago M.Q. Moreira, and Brenna Armstrong. ``Party Realignment, Education, and the Turnout Advantage: Revisiting the Partisan Effect of Turnout.''
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We simulate aggregate-level presidential vote across turnout rates for the 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections. We find that increases in turnout would have benefited the Democratic Party in 2008 and 2012, had a mostly null effect in 2016, and would have hurt the Democratic Party in 2020.
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Goidel, Spencer, and Johanna Dunaway.``Variable Internet Speed Explains Gaps Between Polling Estimates and Election Returns.''
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We examine whether variation in the quality of internet access---in conjunction with several other factors---helps to explain gaps between polling projections and the actual vote shares candidates earn on Election Day.
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Arceneaux, Kevin, Johanna Dunaway, David Nickerson, Jaime Settle, and Spencer Goidel. ``Political Cue Taking on Social Media Among Teens.''
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What influences young people’s assessments of source credibility? We find that while both teenagers and adults find counter-attitudinal messages and partisan messages to be less credible, there is no interaction between those features, nor are there major differences between how teenagers and adults respond to these messages.
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Armstrong, Brenna, Spencer Goidel, and Thiago M.Q. Moreira. ``Part-time or Full-time? State-level Institutional Choice and Representation.''
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We revisit the question of whether legislative professionalism affects women's representation. We find that the effect of legislative professionalism is conditional on the percent of college educated, over 45, politically interested, or full-time working women
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